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US economy not out of the woods yet

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Pound Sterling

The Pound is little changed against the Dollar due to the markets waiting for the results of the UK’s latest retail sales data. The figures are expected to show a marginal decline for the month of October.

The Pound was also little changed versus the Euro after falling to its lowest level in two weeks yesterday. The Bank of England didn’t help matters after suggesting that it had not yet concluded its monetary stimulus programme and the Bank’s governor warned that the UK could slip into a triple dip recession thanks to the ongoing Euro crisis.

US Dollar

The ‘Greenback’ has extended its gains against most of its high-yielding currency rivals due to the continuing uncertainty in the global economy. The release of a pessimistic inflation report by the Bank of England yesterday saw the Dollar rise to a two-week high against the Pound.

Today, ‘Cable’ traders should pay attention to a number of US Dollar data releases. Unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are due for release this afternoon and both are expected to come in under previous readings. If this turns out to be the case then confidence in the US recovery will be knocked and cause the Dollar to surrender some of its recent gains.

The Euro

The Euro recovered some of its losses against the US Dollar yesterday due to increasing hopes that Greece will soon receive the next round of much needed bailout money. Speculation that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its current low interest rate caused traders to take more risks.

Euro traders should keep an eye on the latest flash GDP and CPI figures, both of which are expected to show a hefty decline and increase volatility in the currency. If data coming out of the US indicates that the US economy is slowing down, the Euro will advance higher against the ‘Greenback’.

Australian Dollar

The ‘Aussie’ has declined against the majority of its peers after the nation’s Reserve Bank said that it had increased sales of the currency last month to a number of different buyers, including foreign National Banks. The wane in demand for riskier assets also weighed on the currency. An Israeli air strike into Gaza raised fears of a full scale conflict in the region. The ongoing troubles in Europe have also limited any gains.

New Zealand Dollar

The ‘Kiwi’ suffered a hefty decline against the Euro and US Dollar after the US Federal Reserve discussed the possibility of implementing more bond buying and the worries over Greece eased slightly. The latest data out of New Zealand suggests that the economy may have settled after a soft third quarter in which unemployment jumped, and domestic activity, including retail sales, faltered.

Canadian Dollar

The ‘Loonie’ is trading down against the US Dollar due to a weakening in demand for riskier currencies. Mixed commodity prices also didn’t help the strength of the Canadian Dollar.

South African Rand

The Rand recovered some of its lost ground against the US Dollar after striking miners agreed to a new pay deal and said that they would return to work today. Tensions between workers and their employers are set to remain high as protests continue to be held in some regions. A return to mass strikes will see the Rand weaken once more.

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